The global chemicals industry and cross-border trade environment are undergoing significant shifts in 2025, driven by structural demand changes, rising tariffs and sustainability-linked regulation. For chemical exporters and international traders, understanding these forces is critical to stay competitive and resilient.
1. Global trade and production context
While the largest 50 global chemical firms recorded roughly US $1.014 trillion in combined sales in 2024 — virtually unchanged from the prior year. ([Chemical & Engineering News][1])
Meanwhile, world chemical trade continues to be large: exports crossed about US $2.6 trillion in the 2023-24 period. ([vanesight.com][2])
However, the traditional expectation of sizeable demand rebounds is being challenged. According to a recent assessment, global chemical production growth has been revised downward to around 1.9 % for 2025 (versus earlier forecasts of ~3.5 %). ([Deloitte][3])
For exporters, this means that volume-led growth may be constrained, and competitive pressure may shift more to cost, logistics and product-specialty differentiation.
2. Export growth pockets and regional variations
Some markets still show robust export performance. For example, Egypt’s chemical exports rose by 10 % in the first nine months of 2025, reaching US $6.849 billion, up from US $6.208 billion in the same period of 2024. ([每日新闻埃及][4])
In Asia, key petrochemical export growth is visible: China’s exports of major petrochemicals rose ~19.5 % year-on-year in September 2025, and export capacity additions globally for basic petrochemicals are set to increase ~35 % in 2025. ([rmgchem.com][5])
In Southeast Asia, for example in Indonesia, the chemical and related sector grew 5.8 % in 2024 and is forecast to expand ~6.5 % in 2025; yet exports remain constrained (exports USD 17.45 billion in 2024 vs larger import values). ([business-indonesia.org][6])
These data suggest that while challenges persist, exporters able to tap growing regional demand or niche/specialty segments may see upside.
3. Tariff & trade-policy headwinds
Global chemical trade is also increasingly affected by tariffs and protectionism. For example, U.S. import tariffs are disrupting European chemical producers, prompting order delays and demand softness. ([Reuters][7])
In another example, Brazilian chemical exporters face new U.S. tariffs of up to 50 % on certain products, raising concerns about supply chain disruption. ([Reuters][8])
For cross-border chemical traders, this means that market access risk is elevated, and export strategies must account for dynamic tariff regimes, non-tariff barriers and geopolitical shifts.
4. Structural demand shifts & overcapacity
One of the most significant trends is that the classic model of steady demand growth in petrochemicals is now under pressure. As one industry commentary puts it: “What if there is no demand growth?” ([ICIS Explore][9])
In the European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) Q2 2025 report: the EU27 chemical trade surplus fell to €20.1 billion in H1 2025 (down 17 % from €24.4 billion in H1 2024). Capacity utilisation stood at 74.6 % — 9.5 percentage points below the pre-crisis (2014-19) average. ([cefic][10])
For chemical exporters and traders, this implies that competing into mature markets may be tougher, and addressing overcapacity (particularly in commodity chemicals) is key. Product differentiation, specialty chemicals, and value-chain integration become more important.
5. Logistics & supply-chain dynamics
Logistics plays a crucial role in international trade of chemicals. The global chemical logistics market is projected to grow from USD 291.9 billion in 2025 to USD 406.28 billion by 2035 at a CAGR of ~3.75 %. ([Future Market Insights][11])
Transport modes: roadways expected to hold ~46.2 % of share in 2025; commodity chemicals expected ~49.2 % share in 2025. ([Future Market Insights][11])
For your cross-border trade business, ensuring robust logistics, compliance with hazardous goods transport regulations, and cost-efficient shipping and handling will be key differentiators.
6. Sustainability & regulatory imperatives
Sustainability and regulation are no longer optional. New non-tariff barriers are emerging: for example, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) will affect chemical feedstocks linked to deforestation (e.g., palm oil derivatives) and applies as of December 30 2025. ([resourcewise.com][12])
For exporters to markets like the EU, ensuring traceability of feedstocks, compliance with environmental standards and product declarations will be vital.
Failure to comply may not only affect market access but also reputational risk.
7. Strategic implications for cross-border chemical exporters
Given the above trends, exporters should consider the following strategic actions:
Focus on high-growth niches and specialties: With commodity chemical demand under pressure, focusing on specialty chemicals, sustainable materials, bio-based or green chemicals offers better margins and growth potential.
Diversify markets: Regionally, growth remains stronger in Asia, the Middle East and developing markets rather than only mature Western markets.
Manage tariff risk and regulatory compliance: Stay abreast of tariff changes, non-tariff barriers, changes in environmental regulation, and adjust supply-chain and sourcing accordingly.
Strengthen logistics and supply-chain resilience: Given the importance of transport, warehousing, compliance and real-time tracking in chemical logistics, invest in robust infrastructure, smart tracking and regulatory preparedness.
Demonstrate sustainability credentials: Having clear supply-chain traceability, low-carbon or bio-based product credentials, and compliance with regulatory frameworks will increasingly become a requirement for premium customers and export markets.
Monitor capacity and demand signals: Because global overcapacity remains a structural challenge, exporters need to monitor downstream end-market demand (e.g., construction, automotive, electronics) rather than broad GDP proxies.
Conclusion
In 2025 the global chemical trade landscape is complex: while trade volumes remain large and pockets of growth exist, commodity end-markets face headwinds, tariffs and regulatory burdens are rising, and logistics and sustainability are becoming ever more critical. For cross-border chemical exporters, success lies in agility — targeting growth segments, managing trade and regulatory risks, optimizing logistics, and differentiating with sustainable and specialty offerings.
By aligning your company’s export strategy with these trends, you can position your business to navigate the headwinds and capture emerging opportunities in this evolving global chemical marketplace.